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      "利奇馬"緣何一路向北?臺風登陸地“偏好”或將生變

      時間: 2019-08-12      來源: 中國科學報     



      8月10日,第9號臺風“利奇馬”登陸浙江溫嶺,這是今年登陸我國的最強臺風。

      臺風“踏足”不僅帶來大風天氣,更引發多種災害,浙江臨海全市被淹,永嘉發生山體滑坡……

      與以往臺風不同,此次臺風生成的緯度較高,登陸地點不再“偏愛”華南地區,而是選擇華東地區,而后一路向北,是什么原因造成了這種現象?這是否會成為常態?

      為此《中國科學報》記者采訪了有關專家,一探究竟。

      八月海水不“太平”

      臺風是熱帶氣旋的一種。

      因發生地理位置不同,熱帶氣旋的名稱不同,西北太平洋地區的熱帶氣旋為“臺風”,而大西洋和東北太平洋地區的熱帶氣旋則依強度分別被稱為熱帶低氣壓、熱帶風暴或颶風。

      與颶風類似,臺風也在赤道附近的溫暖海域上空產生,將大量的熱帶溫熱空氣吹向兩極。臺風的強盛期一般出現在夏至或夏季開始后的兩個月。

      在我國,8月通常是臺風最多的月份,今年8月上旬,第7號臺風“韋帕”、第9號臺風“利奇馬”就相繼登陸。

      強熱帶氣旋引人矚目的一個重要原因是風力強勁,破壞力驚人。

      以颶風為例,美國國家海洋和大氣局下屬大西洋海洋氣象實驗室的統計顯示,一次普通的颶風所產生的能量相當于一天世界總發電量的200倍。

      這樣的能量足以給一座城市帶來災難。

      及早預測臺風成為人類減小災害影響的重要方式。

      近年來,全球的氣象專家通過計算機模型提高了預報水平,該模型包括各種物理過程和數據資料。

      此外,各種新型的、先進的數據收集方法也應用其中,包括數據收集浮標站、氣象衛星、追蹤器集中探測、沿海觀測點和氣象雷達等。

      目前,預報中通常會提示,臺風將在某地到某地之間的海岸登陸。

      中國工程院院士、國家氣候變化專家委員會副主任丁一匯告訴《中國科學報》,新技術、多手段的融入大大提升了臺風預測的準確率,但誤差仍然存在。

      目前,中國預測預報臺風的水平與國際大致相同,24小時內臺風路徑的平均誤差為70公里左右。“臺風路徑預測已經達到了一個比較精準的水平,進一步提高路徑預報精度可能比較困難。”

      強度預測是難題

      此次“利奇馬”的登陸過程也受到外界關注。

      浙江省氣象臺早在8月5日就發布了“利奇馬”的登陸信息,日本、菲律賓等周邊國家也預測到“利奇馬”的形成,但均未能預測到其強度如此之大。

      丁一匯介紹,預測臺風“來不來”、在哪兒登陸、移動路徑如何已經不是難題,預測臺風的登陸強度則日益成為世界難題。

      臺風是如何變強和減弱的呢?

      通常,作為熱帶氣旋,臺風移動到較冷水域或陸地上空后會減弱,遭遇熱帶氣流時會加強。

      如果臺風持續在暖水區移動,由于遇熱增溫與水汽輸入增加,對流系統強烈發展,臺風會快速變強。這是臺風預報的難點,也是未來臺風預報的重大挑戰之一。

      丁一匯解釋,臺風強度首先受大氣影響,大氣的溫度、濕度、氣壓、風以及凝結過程中潛熱的釋放都與臺風強度有重要關聯。

      值得注意的是,上述大氣要素的變化,均與海洋和陸地的變化密切相關。“臺風強度并不是‘大氣單方面說了算’,影響臺風強度的因素很多,量化難度大,目前國際上還沒有成熟的臺風強度預測模型。”

      臺風“北上”或成常態

      人類還未能做好預測強臺風的準備,但未來一段時期內,更多強臺風或將出現。

      “可以把臺風想象成一臺發動機,當全球變暖后,這臺發動機的燃料增多、效率增加,自然輸出‘功率’就更大了。”中科院大氣物理研究所副研究員武亮說。

      此外,他介紹,2018年為厄爾尼諾年。

      一般來說,受厄爾尼諾現象影響,西北太平洋臺風生成位置偏東,臺風發展為強臺風的可能性也會增大。

      除了強度,“利奇馬”另一備受關注的原因是登陸地點。肆虐江浙地區后,8月11日傍晚“利奇馬”在山東省沿海地區再次登陸。

      這種“北上”的臺風,與在廣東、海南、臺灣地區等地登陸的“南方臺風”并不完全一樣,發生概率較低。

      丁一匯表示,整體來看,氣候變化會對臺風登陸地點北移造成一定影響,但僅憑一次臺風過程就得出這樣的結論為時尚早。

      他強調,判斷臺風強度的變化與氣候變化是否有關,要看數據質量、數據密度、數據來源和研究方法,并且需要長期觀測。從氣候變化對未來臺風發生位置的影響趨勢講,“北上”臺風的發生數量將會增加。

      從全球來看,也呈現出臺風、颶風等熱帶氣旋向極地推進的趨勢。

      武亮介紹,具體表現為南半球的熱帶氣旋向南極推進,北半球的熱帶氣旋向北極推進。接下來,我國北方沿海地區或將成為臺風的“首選”登陸地。

      責任編輯: 史娜

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