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      您現在的位置: 河北科技新聞網 >> 市場動態

      【行家說市】鮮、干辣椒市場行情分析

      時間: 2019-07-29      來源:     



      7月6日起,各地鮮辣椒價格突然上漲,這主要由于三櫻椒主產區——山東金鄉部分區域遭遇冰雹災害,三櫻椒供應嚴重受挫,與此同時,山東膠州于家村市場大辣椒走貨加快,北方各產區受到帶動,朝天椒的價格普遍上漲,貨主惜售觀望的情緒濃厚,造成鮮辣椒整體價格出現快速上漲。但這種上漲維持的時間非常短,鮮辣椒批量上市讓其價格上漲幾天后迅速趨于穩定。

      當前除了河南清豐縣及周邊產區的鮮椒開始大量上市外,山東臨潁產區、武城產區,河北望都產區,貴州遵義產區,內蒙古開魯產區均有一定的鮮辣椒供應,目前這些產區的交易量平穩,部分儲存商止盈賣貨,捂貨惜售的情緒變得越來越淡,在一定程度上壓制了鮮辣椒上漲的勢頭。

      未來的辣椒行情根本的權衡點還是要看供求關系。2018年年底,河南產區受到極端天氣影響,辣椒產量質量不佳,今年2月之后,部分產區還遭受到了不同程度的雨雪天氣和“倒春寒”,多種原因導致年初辣椒總產量下降超過了30%,從而出現了今年4、5月份辣椒價格瘋漲的局面。受價格上漲的驅動,最近幾個月鮮辣椒的種植面積出現了顯著增加。另外,當前北方地區多晴天,熱量充足,利于辣椒以及其他蔬菜的生長,伴隨著這種可預見的蔬菜集中上市,菜價會快速走低,也會帶動鮮辣椒價格下滑,加上辣椒種植面積的增加,價格的下滑是大概率事件。

      鮮辣椒價格看跌,干辣椒卻有不同的市場表現。早在今年年初時,干辣椒的價格就維持在高位,而且未來依舊會保持了高位穩定的態勢。這主要有兩方面原因:一是庫存不足。春節前干辣椒庫外貨剩余不足三成,春節后存貨商進行第二次備貨,干辣椒的價格繼續上漲,由于干辣椒耐儲存,這種上漲增加了存貨商的持有信心,也增大了收購的難度。二是新干辣椒供應量少。在最近幾個月,雖然云南文山等地的市場開始有燈籠椒和小米椒的新烘干椒上市,但對比鮮辣椒,烘干椒利潤微薄,所以暫時沒有農戶或者商販大量供貨,可能隨著后期鮮辣椒價格的下滑,干辣椒的供貨能力和價格會有一定的變化空間。? 劉旭東

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