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      水果、蔬菜價格高企原因及后市走向

      時間: 2019-07-23      來源:     



      在近日農業農村部舉行的新聞發布會上,農業農村部市場與經濟信息司司長唐珂對于下半年水果蔬菜價格的走勢做出了分析。

      水果方面:今年上半年以來價格漲幅比較大,6月份農業農村部重點監測的6種水果,包括富士蘋果、鴨梨、西瓜、香蕉、菠蘿和巨峰葡萄,這六種水果的均價是每公斤8.39元,環比漲了11.1%,漲幅收窄8個百分點,同比仍然高51.7%。其中關注度最高的富士蘋果、鴨梨同比分別高106.2%和165.5%。水果價格持續高位運行,具有明顯的階段性、季節性特征,主要是由于蘋果、梨主產區去年春季遭受倒春寒天氣,減產的幅度比較大,加之今年春季南方荔枝等部分熱帶水果也有所減產,導致短期內水果市場供給偏緊。

      近期,隨著西瓜、甜瓜、桃等夏季時令水果大量上市,水果市場供給總量充足、品種多樣,價格漲勢趨緩,后期有望步入季節性下行走勢。拿蘋果來說,陜西、甘肅等產地反映,今年蘋果主產區生產總體良好,產量有望明顯恢復,部分地區增產30%左右,預計秋季蘋果大量上市后價格將高位回落。

      蔬菜方面:今年上半年整體價格持續高位運行,近期隨著天氣好轉,蔬菜集中上市,菜價快速走低。6月份蔬菜批發均價每公斤3.83元,環比跌7.0%,同比高10.7%。

        今年蔬菜季節性上漲價格水平偏高,主要是前期不利天氣導致,也有成本上漲推動的因素。從歷年規律看,蔬菜價格往往是一季度上漲、二季度下跌,6、7月份是全年蔬菜價格的低點。隨著應季蔬菜大量上市,陸地蔬菜供應量快速增加,加之前期推遲上市的蔬菜集中供應,預計后期蔬菜價格以季節性下行為主,部分品種還可能存在滯銷賣難的風險。與此同時,近日南方多地出現極端天氣,連降暴雨引發洪澇災害,部分地區菜價或將小幅回升。

      全年來看,受前期菜價水平偏高的影響,預計下半年部分品種擴種意愿較強,如果不發生大范圍災害性天氣,后期及秋冬蔬菜供應有保障,蔬菜整體價格或將高于去年,但漲幅是有限的。

      責任編輯: 劉慧

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