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      2019年化肥行業面臨哪些問題?

      時間: 2019-05-17      來源:     



      ??? 自去年以來,我國化肥行業保持穩中向好的運行態勢:供需基本穩定,價格高位運行。但值得關注的是,下游需求低迷、出口形勢嚴峻等仍困擾行業發展。此外,安全環保政策趨嚴也將給行業帶來極大挑戰。

        化肥需求低迷

        從需求側看,化肥消費量受農作物總量減少影響,呈下降趨勢。山東省化肥和煤化工行業協會高級顧問楊春升表示,為保護土地,國家在逐步推行耕地修復、實行休耕輪作,鼓勵施用有機肥取代化肥,推廣應用各種功能性新型肥料和有機肥,開展測土配方施肥,努力提高化肥利用率,這些措施都導致化肥施用量減少。

        據統計,2016年,全國農用化肥使用量5984萬噸(折純),比2015年減少41.5萬噸,這是自1974年以來首次出現負增長。2017年,國內化肥消費量進一步下降至5859.4萬噸;2018年,國內化肥消費量在5100萬噸左右,表觀消費總量降幅為4.9%。

        楊春升指出,農業種植結構及農業補貼政策的調整,也直接影響著化肥使用量。三大主糧播種面積減少,在很大程度上降低了化肥需求。

        據介紹,2018年我國耕地輪作休耕試點面積比上年翻一番,擴大到2400萬畝。三大主糧中玉米播種面積下降0.6%,小麥播種面積下降1%,稻谷播種面積下降1.8%。

        2

        化肥出口受限

        從國際市場看,2016年以來,國外化肥新增產能進入釋放期,其以天然氣為原料的化肥與國內以煤為原料的化肥相比,價格優勢不斷擴大,致使我國化肥出口困難。

        以尿素為例,我國2014年和2015年連續兩年出口量都超過1300萬噸,出口規模占全球尿素貿易總量的30%左右。2016年我國尿素出口887.07萬噸,同比下降35.6%;2017年出口465.6萬噸,同比下降47.5%;2018年出口244.7萬噸,同比下降47.5%。國內產能對尿素出口的依賴度也從2015年的20%多,降至2018年的5%左右,預計今年尿素出口量仍將下降。

        “2018年我國出現以整船方式進口尿素的情況,這是12年來的第一次。如果今年國內外尿素價差進一步擴大,進口有利可圖,國內仍會進口大量尿素,給國內市場帶來壓力。”楊春升分析。

        3

        安全環保政策趨嚴

        除了下游需求下降、出口形勢嚴峻外,化肥行業還將面臨安全環保政策趨嚴的挑戰。

        楊春升指出,當前安全、環保工作壓力持續加碼。由于壓縮產能、危化品搬遷、環保要求升級等多重因素交互作用,化肥行業生產的被動局面仍未得到根本改善。加之國際貿易保護主義抬頭,全球經濟格局重組步伐加快,以及全球經濟環境的不確定性、不穩定性,這都給國內化肥市場運行帶來隱憂。

        “化肥價格的天花板是糧價,糧食價格不升高,化肥價格也難有上行空間。化肥價格的底板是能源和磷礦價格,如果煤炭、天然氣、硫黃、磷礦等價格不降低,那么即使肥企開工率再低,化肥價格也很難降下來。現在是天花板低、底板高,化肥市場可操作空間十分狹窄。”楊春升分析說。

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