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      尿素:貨還在路上 價格已落了

      時間: 2019-05-16      來源:     



      ??? 最近尿素價格在廠商心態博弈之下依舊難逃回落的“宿命”,也有多數基層市場反饋稱尿素價格持續回落,還未等貨到庫,市場價格已經降了,很是心碎,而終端又是淡季觀望情緒太濃,著實令生產企業不得不一再下調價格;甚至是有山西、內蒙等像“沼澤”區域的一些尿素企業已經出現了保底訂單,就連山東有個別企業表示也可收保底訂單,廠商的心態愈加悲觀,正所謂貨還在路上、價格卻已經落了。

        在供應充足,需求清淡的環境之下,尿素價格持續回落。先看工廠方面,內蒙地區尿素價格回落幅度最為明顯,小顆粒尿素主流出廠報價回落至1720-1860元/噸左右,山東地區回落至1960-1970元/噸左右;再看工業復合肥廠采購方面,臨沂區域尿素接貨價格在1990-2000元/噸左右,且收貨情緒不高;最后看農業方面,觀望情緒較濃,大農資經銷商更是不改隨用隨采的操作方式,市場批發價不斷回落,如湖南地區二級批發價落50-70元/噸左右至2100-2120元/噸左右,若想知其他市場的詳細價格煩請加入中國化肥網會員專區。

        尿素企業“罕見”的高位開工,生產企業自身銷售壓力較大。從年初開始,因受環保及安全檢查因素的制約,國內尿素企業始終被“壓抑”著,開工低位,但截至目前國內尿素企業在環保及安全檢查之下,開工率已有回升,據統計在63.94%左右,相比于年初的開工已屬“罕見”水平;另外還有備受關注的寧夏地區檢修的尿素企業出產品時間,據代理表示工廠正恢復中,安徽少數檢修的尿素裝置近期也有復產打算,山東地區部分企業也會隨時調整尿素的生產負荷。

        需格外提出的是淡季之下,不排除部分尿素企業可能會在此時進行檢修,來安穩度過這段行情低落階段,這或支撐尿素價格止跌。

        農業、工業兩方面市場整體需求不多。農業需求青黃不接,多地市場基層用肥結束,補單采購意愿不強,不管終端如何,大中農資經銷商始終是隨用隨采,農業上繼續的價格支撐很是有限。工業復合肥企業的原料采購量有所減少,一是淡季之下,復合肥企業停車尤其是后期東北地區復合肥企業的開工情況將備受關注,二是環保及安全檢查之下,部分復合肥企業停檢,據中國化肥網統計截至上周末復合肥大廠的整體行業開工率降至53%左右,尤其是一些原料企業表示中小復合肥企業停車情況居多,因而原料需求量在減少。

        液氨價格的明顯回落,企業生產重心或有轉移。近期國內液氨市場持續回落,且似乎短期內還未見底,華北、華東尤其是華中市場液氨價格承壓下行,如湖北地區液氨主流承兌成交出廠參考價回落至2930-2980元/噸左右,且周邊低價貨源還源源不斷,廠家還有回落的風險;部分企業可能會將生產重心轉移至尿素方面,從而再次加重尿素的銷售壓力,一些保底訂單也可能會相繼坐實,價格上還有承壓下行趨勢。

        綜合來看,短期內尿素市場難尋明顯的利好因素支撐,反而是開工高位,需求不溫不火,加之經銷商隨用隨采的謹慎態度,行情的疲軟程度或會加重,預計短期內尿素市場將繼續疲軟運行,成交價格上還應有下探空間。

      責任編輯: 劉慧

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